THE STORY

For the first time since SpaceX's record-breaking IPO last month, Wall Street analysts are initiating coverage of the company's publicly traded stock (SPCX). Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives — one of Tesla's most prominent bulls — issued the first analyst note with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target. Investors have been "largely flying blind" since the IPO, with few financial projections to help determine what the stock is actually worth at its approximately $2.2 trillion valuation. The challenge: SpaceX's revenue streams span launch services, Starlink broadband, government contracts, and the nascent Starship program — and the company has historically shared minimal financial data.

THE DOUGH

Analyst coverage is a critical catalyst for institutional investment. Many large funds cannot buy stocks without at least one or two analyst ratings. As more banks initiate coverage, SpaceX could see significant inflows from institutional investors who were sidelined during the IPO period. The analysis will also force public scrutiny of Starlink's unit economics, Starship's development costs, and government contract margins — data points the private SpaceX never had to disclose.

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THE POSSIBILITIES

If analysts can credibly model Starlink's path to profitability — particularly with the recent FCC seven-fold capacity ruling — SpaceX's valuation could be reframed as primarily a telecom play rather than a launch company, fundamentally changing which investor class holds the stock.

THE HURDLES

SpaceX reportedly posted a nearly $5 billion loss in 2025, largely attributed to xAI investments. If analysts can't separate core space operations from adjacent Musk ventures, the stock narrative becomes muddied. Invesco has already flagged SpaceX's inaugural bond sale for "very sloppy" secondary market performance.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Additional analyst initiations from major banks over the coming weeks
  • SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report as a public company
  • Starlink subscriber growth and ARPU metrics in the first public disclosures